We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. The intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For...

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they...

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy...