Standard real business cycle models are often unable to replicate three empirical facts: positive output in response to good news, stochastic volatility of macro variables, and asymmetric business cycles. This paper proposes a unified basis for understanding these facts in a tractable dynamic...

We develop a new method for deriving minimal state variable (MSV) equilibria of a general class of Markov switching rational expectations models and a new algorithm for computing these equilibria. We compare our approach to previously known algorithms, and we demonstrate that ours is both...

Noisy rational expectations models, in which agents have dispersed private information and extract information from an endogenous asset price, are widely used in finance. However, these linear partial equilibrium models do not fit well in modern macroeconomics that is based on non-linear dynamic...

This paper extends the forestry maximum principle of Heaps (1984) to allow the benefits of harvesting to be the utility of the volume of the wood harvested as in Mitra and Wan (1985, 1986). Unlike those authors, however, time is treated as a continuous rather than as a discrete variable....

We develop in this paper a novel portfolio selection framework with a feature of double robustness in both return distribution modeling and portfolio optimization. While predicting the future return distributions always represents the most compelling challenge in investment, any underlying...

As recent experience suggests, the most significant economic fluctuations are those that combine real and financial factors. This paper works out a simple model that couples a version of Goodwin׳s (1967) growth cycle model of real fluctuations with insights drawn from a model of financial...

In the literature, econometricians typically assume that household income is the sum of a random walk permanent component and a transitory component, with uncorrelated permanent and transitory shocks. Using data on realized individual incomes and individual expectations of future incomes from...

In a forward-looking business cycle model, central banks can achieve the (timeless)optimal commitment equilibrium even in the absence of a commitment technology, if they are delegated with an objective function that is different from the societal one. The paper develops a general...

To value non-transferable non-hedgeable (NTNH) contingent claims and price executive stock options (ESOs), we use a replication argument to translate portfolios with NTNH derivatives into portfolios of primary assets (only) with stochastic portfolio constraints. By identifying stochastic...

Accounting for the uncertainty in real-time perceptions of the state of the economy is believed to be critical for monetary policy analysis. We investigate this claim through the lens of a New Keynesian model with optimal discretionary policy and partial information. Structural parameters are...