The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real...

The means-testing of age pension programs allows governments to control the receipt of pension benefits (extensive margin) and the benefit level (intensive margin). We investigate how the presence of the extensive margin influences the trade-off between protecting the poorer elderly and the...

This paper quantifies the fiscal cost of demographic transition that Japan is projected to experience over the next several decades, in a life-cycle model with endogenous saving, consumption, and labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. Retirement waves of baby-boom generations,...

We introduce a dynamic banking-macro model, which abstains from conventional mean-reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset-price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To...

Recent research has found that the dynamic properties of the New Keynesian model are unorthodox when the nominal interest rate is zero. Improvements in technology and reductions in the labor tax rate lower economic activity and the size of the government purchase output multiplier is very large....

We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news...

To what extent is public debt private liquidity? Much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households. This is the case for ad-hoc debt limits, which are exogenous to public...

This paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008, triggered by a collapse in house prices, caused the Great Recession. The paper has three parts. First, it provides evidence of a high correlation between the value of the stock market and the unemployment rate in U.S. data since 1929....

This paper proposes a perturbation-based approach to implement the idea of endogenous financial risk in a standard DSGE macro-model. Recent papers, such as Mendoza (2010), Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2012) and He and Krishnamurthy (2012), that have stimulated the research field on endogenous risk...

What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro- and micro-empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that...