Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically...

This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents may produce heterogeneous expectations because of informational frictions and differing levels of a capacity to process information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this framework: those...

This paper presents a DSGE model in which agents׳ learning about the economy can endogenously generate time-varying macroeconomic volatility. Economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters. Their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted...

I present a simple model where forecasting confidence affects aggregate demand. It is shown that this model has similar stability properties, under statistical and evolutionary learning, as a model without a confidence affect. From this setup, I introduce “Expectational Business Cycles”...

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labor supply, which makes agents’ decisions non-predetermined...

Recent research shows that several DSGE models provide a closer fit to the data under adaptive learning. This paper extends this research by introducing adaptive learning in the model of Krusell and Smith (1998) with uninsurable idiosyncratic risks and aggregate uncertainty. A first contribution...

New evidence suggests that individuals “learn from experience,” meaning they learn from events occurring during their lives as opposed to the entire history of events. Moreover, they weigh more heavily recent events compared to events occurring in the distant past. This paper analyzes the...

In the paper we show – using standard approaches, general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality – that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate. Specifically, it is argued – without resorting to sunspot type arguments – that microeconomic...

Recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback can have a large impact on whether the market can learn the rational fundamental price. We present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks. Markets with negative...

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...