Do sector-specific factors common to all countries play an important role in explaining business cycle co-movement? We address this question by analyzing international co-movements of value added (VA) growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor,...

The theoretical literature on business cycles predicts a positive investment response to productivity improvements, a prediction we question from theoretical and empirical perspectives. We show that a short-term negative response of investment to a positive technology shock is consistent with a...

This paper analyzes the contribution of anticipated capital and labor tax shocks to business cycle volatility in an estimated New Keynesian business cycle model. While fiscal policy accounts for about 15% of output variance at business cycle frequencies, this mostly derives from anticipated...

We consider a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. The model allows blocks of parameters to change at endogenously estimated points of time....

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008–2009. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point...

We study the effects that the Maastricht Treaty, the creation of the ECB, and the Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panel VAR and data from 10 European countries—seven from the Euro area and three outside of it. There are changes in the features of...

We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new...

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of...

We propose a nonlinear filter to estimate the time-varying default risk from the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Based on the numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) using a meshfree interpolation method, the filter performs a joint estimation of the...

This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the U.K. We estimate a suite of monetary-policy models that include both forward- and backward-looking representations as well as large- and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for...