This paper examines the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the US dollar exchange rates against the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. In this paper, we utilize the cointegration technique for testing long-run relationship, and vector error correction model for...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

The signalling channel suggests that central banks use sterilized interven - tions in the foreign exchange market to convey information about future mone - tary policy to the market. To date, this theory is not sufficiently supported by theoretical work that establishes the link between...

A classic argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime (ERR) has been the promotion of international trade between the pegging country and its base country. Results from previous literature point to a significant and highly positive effect of adopting a fixed ERR on bilateral trade between...

This paper examines the long-run and short- run effects of depreciation/ devaluation for major European Union countries (Germany, France, the Unit - ed Kingdom, and Italy) over the 1975-1997 period. The approach is based on cointegration techniques proposed by Johansen [1988] and uses quarterly...

This paper examines the relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson productivity-bias hypothesis for explaining long-run permanent shocks in the real exchange rates. The sample consists of yearly data on real exchange rates and productivity for six OECD countries. On the basis of Johansens maximum...

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth is due to relative tradable productivity...

This paper examines the effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on tourist flows into Turkey for the period of 1994~2012. Our results show that (i) there is a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and tourist inflows into Turkey; (ii) there is a negative impact of the relative price...

The trade balance is built directly into a factor proportions model of produc - tion. A wealth stockpile of the exported good is maintained, growing when the small open economy has a surplus and shrinking with a deficit. Income and prices determine consumption of exports and imports, while...

There are many papers written on how price and wage rigidity can cause monetary policy to generate real effects on the economy. In those that incorporate open-economy considerations, monetary changes in one country also has an impact on other economies. In this paper, an attempt is made to add...