This paper considers the effects of formation or new accession to a monetary union (MU) on itself (“ins”) and the outsiders (“outs”) as well. Since a MU inherently means a “large” entity, we construct a large country model to examine those effects in the context of economic growth....

Agents engage in a process of forecasting the exchange rate based on observations of macroeconomic fundamentals. Deviations in the realized exchange rate from agents’ forecasts determine fluctuations in components of the current and financial accounts of the balance of payments in a sample of...

This paper examines the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the US dollar exchange rates against the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. In this paper, we utilize the cointegration technique for testing long-run relationship, and vector error correction model for...

Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that...

We review the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) approach to the measurement of the degree of international capital mobility by the size of the saving-investment correlation; we conclude that it raises many problems. Instead, we employ Granger causality tests to measure capital mobility using quarterly...

The eurozone is the crown jewel in the process of European integration. This monetary zone includes the most advanced integration grouping of countries in the European Union. The eurozone has been expanding the number of its participants, a sign of success in any economic or political union....

Using data on UK manufacturing firms, we examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on firm decisions on export market entry and export intensity. The use of micro data and new measures of exchange rate uncertainty enable us to test for hysteresis effects in a new way and to test the...

The East Asian currency crisis of 1997-98 has led to considerable interest on the interlinkages between foreign exchange markets in the Asian region. Implicit in the literature is the assumption that the currency crisis can be linked to close integration of the goods and capital markets of the...

This paper examines the long-run and short- run effects of depreciation/ devaluation for major European Union countries (Germany, France, the Unit - ed Kingdom, and Italy) over the 1975-1997 period. The approach is based on cointegration techniques proposed by Johansen [1988] and uses quarterly...

This paper examines the relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson productivity-bias hypothesis for explaining long-run permanent shocks in the real exchange rates. The sample consists of yearly data on real exchange rates and productivity for six OECD countries. On the basis of Johansens maximum...