Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - In: Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer … 222 (2002) 3, pp. 289-315
A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....
