This paper analyzes a class of nonnegative processes for the short-term interest rate. The dynamics of interest rates and yields are driven by the dynamics of the conditional volatility of the pricing kernel. We study Markovian interest rate processes as well as more general non-Markovian...

This paper examines the probability of returns exceeding a threshold, extending earlier work of Christoffersen and Diebold (2006) on volatility dynamics and sign predictability. We find that the choice of the threshold matters and that a zero threshold (leading to sign predictions) does not lead...