We study the relationship between order flow and volatility. To this end we develop a comprehensive framework that simultaneously controls for the effects of macro announcements and order flow on prices and the effect of macro announcements on volatility. Using high-frequency 30-year U.S....

We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily stock...

We use an intensity-based framework to study the relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and cycles in defaults and rating activity. Using Standard and Poor's U.S. corporate rating transition and default data over the period 1980-2005, we directly estimate the default and rating cycle from...

We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence in daily financial return series that are subject to long memory (fractionally integrated) dynamics and heavy-tailed densities. Our new multivariate model accounts for typical empirical features in financial time...