We study how professional forecasters form equity market expectations based on a new micro-level dataset which includes rich cross-sectional information about individual characteristics. We focus on testing whether agents rely on the beliefs of others, i.e., consensus expectations, when forming...

We analyze the intra-week evolution of bookie-quoted National Football League betting lines in New York City and its implications for market efficiency. Our unique data set includes three sequential lines: (i) an outlaw line set by a single agent at the beginning of the week; (ii) Tuesday's...

This paper proposes a modification of an optimal test for cycles in multiple time series and applies it to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between stock returns and the phases of the moon. No significant relationship is found, which is in line with the evidence from descriptive...

For models of the probability of informed trading (PIN), estimation can fail for firms with high levels of trading due to computer over/under-flow. Since active firms tend to have large market capitalizations, studies that use PIN have excluded as much as 40% of total market capitalization from...

A significant number of institutional investors publicly state the belief that corporate stakeholder relations are associated with firm value in a manner that the financial market fails to understand. We investigate whether stakeholder information predicted risk-adjusted returns due to errors in...

This paper applies a recently proposed structural vector autoregressive model identification method to an established, previously unidentified theoretical model of stock market volatility spillovers. The structural model is identified and can be estimated with the method of maximum likelihood....

This study examines the role for the Tokyo and the New York Stock Exchange in price discovery for Japanese shares. A structural approach is employed to investigate the efficiency and contribution in price discovery separately. We find that the speed of incorporating information into prices is...

Stock return autocorrelation contains spurious components—the nonsynchronous trading effect (NT) and bid–ask bounce (BAB)—and genuine components—partial price adjustment (PPA) and time-varying risk premia (TVRP). We identify a portion that can unambiguously be attributed to PPA, using...

We find that analysts who frequently revise their stock recommendations outperform those who do not. This result holds for portfolios formed on the basis of favorable changes in recommendations as well as unfavorable changes. The frequency of revision captures information incremental to factors...

We analyze how gender and age, internal characteristics of retail futures traders—one that remains fixed while the other changes over a lifetime—and the security being traded and bull–bear market conditions, two external factors, are related to the disposition effect by separately tracking...