Until recently economists focused on structural models that were constrained by a lack of high-frequency data and theoretical deficiencies. Little academic research has been invested in actually trying to build successful real-time trading models for the high-frequency foreign exchange market,...

We characterize the term structure models in which the zero-coupon prices are linear functions of underlying factors. These models are called Linear-price Term Structure Models (LTSM). We provide two types of LTSM where the observable factors predict regimes which are not observed by the...

Recent years have seen an expansion of carbon markets around the world as various policymakers attempt to reduce CO2 emissions. This paper considers two of the major types of carbon permits: European Union Allowances (EUAs, arising from the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, EU ETS) and...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

We provide a theoretical framework to explain the empirical finding that the estimated betas are sensitive to the sampling interval even when using continuously compounded returns. We suppose that stock prices have both permanent and transitory components. The discrete time representation of the...

We propose a new approach to the definition of stress scenarios for volatilities and correlations. Correlations and volatilities depend on a common market factor, which is the key to stressing them in a consistent and intuitive way. Our approach is based on a new asset price model where...

This paper analyzes ΔCoVaR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) as a tool for identifying/ranking systemically important institutions. We develop a test of significance of ΔCoVaR that allows determining whether or not a financial institution can be classified as being systemically...

We provide an empirical analysis of two important phenomena influencing the hedge fund industry—contagion and time variation in risk adjusted return (alpha)—in a flexible unified framework. After accounting for standard hedge fund pricing factors, we quantify the common latent factor in...

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables that contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors of...

We present an estimation and forecasting method, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for inference in GARCH models subjected to an unknown number of structural breaks at unknown dates. We treat break dates as parameters and determine the number of breaks by computing the marginal...