Standard approaches to building and estimating dynamic term structure models rely on the assumption that yields can serve as the factors. However, the assumption is neither theoretically necessary nor empirically supported. This paper documents that almost half of the variation in bond risk...

No-arbitrage term structure models impose cross-sectional restrictions among yields and can be used to impose dynamic restrictions on risk compensation. This paper evaluates the importance of these restrictions when using the term structure to forecast future bond yields. It concludes that no...

This chapter discusses what the asset-pricing literature concludes about the forecastability of interest rates. It outlines forecasting methodologies implied by this literature, including dynamic, no-arbitrage term structure models and their macro-finance extensions. It also reviews the...

This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve,...

We model the effects on banks of the introduction of a market for credit derivatives; in particular, credit-default swaps. A bank can use such swaps to temporarily transfer credit risks of their loans to others, reducing the likelihood that defaulting loans trigger the bank's financial distress....

The high persistence of interest rates has important implications for the preferred method used to estimate term structure models. We study the finite-sample properties of two standard dynamic simulation methods—efficient method of moments (EMM) and indirect inference—when they are applied...