Backtesting methods are statistical tests designed to uncover value-at-risk (VaR) models not capable of reporting the correct unconditional coverage probability or filtering the serial dependence in the data. We show in this paper that these methods are subject to the presence of model risk...

This article investigates, both in finite samples and asymptotically, statistical inference on predictive regressions where time series are generated by present value models of stock prices. We show that regression-based tests, including robust tests such as the conditional test and the Q-test,...