Lustig, Hanno; Roussanov, Nikolai; Verdelhan, Adrien - In: Journal of Financial Economics 111 (2014) 3, pp. 527-553
excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking on aggregate risk by shorting the dollar in bad times, when the U ….S. price of risk is high. The countercyclical variation in risk premia leads to strong return predictability: the average …-year horizon. The estimated model implies that the variation in the exposure of U.S. investors to worldwide risk is the key driver …