This study provides empirical support for theoretical models that allow for time-varying rare disaster risk. Using a database of 447 international political crises during the period 1918-2006, we create a crisis index that shows substantial variation over time. Changes in this crisis index, our...

Miller [1977. Risk, uncertainty, and divergence of opinion. Journal of Finance 32, 1151-1168] hypothesizes that prices of stocks subject to high differences of opinion and short-sales constraints are biased upward. We expect earnings announcements to reduce differences of opinion among...