Using a novel measure of industry exposure to government spending, we show predictable variation in cash flows and stock returns over political cycles. During Democratic presidencies, firms with high government exposure experience higher cash flows and stock returns, while the opposite pattern...

I study the cross-sectional variation of stock returns and technological progress using a dynamic equilibrium model with production. Technological progress is endogenously driven by research and development (R&D) investment and is composed of two parts. One part is devoted to product innovation;...

I identify a “slope” factor in the cross section of commodity futures returns: high-basis commodity futures have higher loadings on this factor than low-basis commodity futures. Combined with a level factor (an index of commodity futures), this slope factor explains most of the average...