Guermat, Cherif; Harris, Richard D. F. - In: Journal of Forecasting 25 (2006) 7, pp. 481-494
Volatility models such as GARCH, although misspecified with respect to the data-generating process, may well generate volatility forecasts that are unconditionally unbiased. In other words, they generate variance forecasts that, on average, are equal to the integrated variance. However, many...