Venetis, Ioannis A.; Peel, David A.; Paya, Ivan - In: Journal of Forecasting 23 (2004) 5, pp. 373-384
We analyse the nonlinear behaviour of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one-year-ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the USA and four of the UK over the last 40 years. However, recent investigations on the...
