Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series and an aggregate of industrialized countries, we find that technology shocks appreciate the terms of trade and lower the trade balance; they induce an 'S'-shaped cross-correlation function for both variables (the S-curve). In calibrating a...

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries, this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. To achieve identification, we derive...

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the...

We revisit the classic transfer problem, accounting for two channels of adjustment: increased trade in existing goods and services (the intensive margin) and net creation and destruction of product varieties (the extensive margin). Over the medium term, the latter reduces the scope for real...