We build on the recent literature studying the effects of uncertainty on trade by introducing a model that combines a reduced form vector autoregression for the growth rates of exports, foreign income, and the real exchange rate (RER), with a multivariate GARCH model. Up to 12 lags of several...

This paper presents the first empirical evidence on the efficacy of raising interest rates ex ante as a deterrent to speculative attacks. Using a dataset that covers 54 countries from March 1964 through December 2005, we find strong evidence that raising interest rates in advance has...