Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data...

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must...

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analog of the well-known Pastor–Stambaugh liquidity...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to “standard” short-term riskless securities. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and ever-increasing proportion...

We assess cross-sectional differences in 23 bilateral currency excess returns in an empirical model that distinguishes between US-specific and global risks, conditional on US bull (upside) or bear (downside) markets. Using the US dollar as numeraire currency, our results suggest that global...

In this paper, we examine the intra-day effects of verbal statements and comments on the FX market uncertainty using two measures: continuous volatility and discontinuous jumps. Focusing on the euro-dollar exchange rate, we provide empirical evidence of how these two sources of uncertainty...

We investigate whether momentum or reversal is the dominant phenomenon in short horizon (one- to four-week) foreign exchange rate returns. We find, based on a broad sample of 63 emerging and developed market currencies, evidence of momentum rather than reversal. Momentum strategy returns are as...

This paper investigates the performance of carry trade strategies for currencies with non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. We find that carry trades for currencies with NDF contracts are associated with higher Sharpe ratios compared to carry trades for currencies with deliverable forward...

The quality of an exchange rate forecasting model has typically been judged relative to a random-walk in terms of out-of-sample forecast errors. The difficulty of outperforming this benchmark is well documented, although Clarida and Taylor have demonstrated how the random walk can be beaten in...

We use rolling cointegration tests to investigate the relationship between the Renminbi daily future spot return and the forward discount rate for the period after the currency regime reform in China in July 2005. We find that there are different regimes after this reform and that the financial...