This paper investigates the impact of macroannouncements, government bond auctions and rating actions on the 10-year government bond spreads for Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain with respect to Germany. Using a unique tick-by-tick dataset over 1/02/2009–05/31/2012, we identify...

This study examines return predictability of major foreign exchange rates by testing for martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) using daily and weekly nominal exchange rates from 1975 to 2009. We use three alternative tests for the MDH, which include the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio...

In this article, tests for globalization and contagion are separated using an ex ante definition of crises, and contagion tests are neutralized with respect to globalization effects. A large database is constructed to study the stability of correlation matrices for four asset classes: equities,...

We assess cross-sectional differences in 23 bilateral currency excess returns in an empirical model that distinguishes between US-specific and global risks, conditional on US bull (upside) or bear (downside) markets. Using the US dollar as numeraire currency, our results suggest that global...

This paper studies bivariate tail comovements on financial markets that are of crucial importance for the world economy: the S&P 500, US bonds, and currencies. We propose to study that form of dependence under the lens of cojump identification in a bivariate Brownian semimartingale with...

When the interbank market risk premium soared during the financial crisis, it created a wedge between interest rates actually paid by private agents and the rapidly falling policy rates. Many central banks attempted to improve the situation by supplying liquidity to the domestic interbank...

We use a cross-country panel framework to analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts. We find that net official flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances. The estimated effects are larger with instrumental...

We evaluate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and recent structural changes in the patterns of hoarding international reserves (IR). We confirm that the determinants of IR hoarding evolve with developments in the global economy. During the pre-GFC period of 1999–2006, gross...

Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008–09 financial crisis. More specifically, the paper investigates the relation between...

Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....