We apply extreme value theory to assess the tail dependence between three currency crisis measures and 18 economic indicators commonly used for predicting crises. In our pooled sample of 46 countries in the period 1974–2008, we find that nearly all pairs of variables are asymptotically...

Many studies have pointed out that the underlying relations and functions for the monetary model (e.g. the PPP relation, the money-demand function, monetary policy rule, etc.) have undergone parameter instabilities and that the relation between exchange rates and macro fundamentals is unstable...

This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports...

Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some individual goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-evaluation of the nominal exchange rate. We collect...

The real exchange rate is one of the most important price variables in macroeconomics as changes in it have implications for both external competitiveness as well as internal sectoral resource allocation. This paper decomposes real exchange rate volatility into its two components for a panel of...

This study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by Taylor rules. We fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free-floating exchange rates and inflation targeting...

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro–Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro–Dollar exchange rate closely...

This paper examines the extent to which foreign borrowing funds private investment, consumption and government expenditure in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand (the Anglosphere), advanced economies which have been the world's largest international borrowers since...

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data,...

We address the importance of external versus domestic conditions in determining emerging market bond (EMBI) spreads. Using principal components, we derive a measure of global risk aversion, which is shown to have a significant and, when interacted with a country's foreign debt to GNI ratio,...