This paper studies bivariate tail comovements on financial markets that are of crucial importance for the world economy: the S&P 500, US bonds, and currencies. We propose to study that form of dependence under the lens of cojump identification in a bivariate Brownian semimartingale with...

This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects on trade for six different types of exchange rate regime transitions, utilizing data on 218,643 country-pair-year observations all together. Previous research mainly focused on the currency union effect on trade and widely assumed...

In this paper, we propose an arbitrage-free international macro-finance model that links the exchange rate dynamics to macroeconomic fundamentals. Jointly using data on exchange rates, yields of zero-coupon bonds, and macroeconomic variables of the US and the Euro area, we find a close link...

This paper relies on wavelet multiresolution analysis to investigate the dependence structure and predictability of currency markets across different timescales. It explores the nature and direction of causality among the exchange rates with respect to the US dollar of the most widely traded...

This paper identifies the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate, in which monetary policy follows a Taylor-rule interest rate reaction function. The exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables,...

Empirical tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) are implicitly based on the conditions of symmetry and proportionality of the price coefficients. We investigate a separate condition, which we term homogeneity. Specifically, while there may be factors that drive a wedge between prices and...

We build on the recent literature studying the effects of uncertainty on trade by introducing a model that combines a reduced form vector autoregression for the growth rates of exports, foreign income, and the real exchange rate (RER), with a multivariate GARCH model. Up to 12 lags of several...

We reassess the degree of exchange rate co-movement between the Japanese yen and five emerging Asian currencies relative to the US dollar in the 2000s. It is often claimed that these currencies have been closely tied with the Japanese yen possibly due to active interactions of Japan and...

This paper uses the Johansen test for cointegration to check the prediction of a portfolio balance model that predictable valuation effects are associated with a saddle-path dynamic relationship between the net foreign asset position and the real exchange rate. The analysis uses newly...

We assess cross-sectional differences in 23 bilateral currency excess returns in an empirical model that distinguishes between US-specific and global risks, conditional on US bull (upside) or bear (downside) markets. Using the US dollar as numeraire currency, our results suggest that global...