In this paper we study the experiences of wage and price mark-up adjustments (internal devaluation) in Germany (in the decade up to 2009) and Spain (in the 5-year after 2009) within the framework of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model (NMCM). The NMCM works both in a rational expectation...

Using recently published tax series by Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) we examine whether or not positive and negative tax shocks have asymmetric effects on the U.S. and U.K. economies. We find that in the U.S. positive tax shocks—tax increases—do not affect output while negative...

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...

I analyze the consequences of including home production in a New Keynesian model with staggered price setting. Home production amplifies responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. Compared to a model without home production, the model generates close to twice the output response to a...

This paper studies the implication of unit root supply shocks for the Taylor rule. I find that, when supply shocks have a unit root, if a central bank wishes to guarantee the stationarity of inflation, then their interest rate reaction function should not respond to the output gap. Once the...

This paper documents time variation in fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US over the period 1971–2009. The analysis is based on a quarterly vector autoregression (VAR) model. For the German and the UK cases, the VAR is augmented by “global factors” representing...

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment fluctuations defined as the log difference between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly US...

The Great Moderation is often characterized by the decline in the variability of output and inflation from earlier periods. While a multitude of explanations for the Great Moderation exist, notable research has focused on the role of monetary policy. Specifically, early evidence suggested that...

Golosov and Lucas (2007) have challenged the view that infrequent price adjustments by firms explain why money has aggregate real output effects. The basis of their challenge is the ‘selection effect’ – re-setting firms are not selected at random, they are those firms whose prices are...

Central banks typically have a long-run inflation target that is modestly positive. However, the standard New Keynesian framework prescribes that zero inflation is the optimal long-run target. In this paper, we show that when the baseline New Keynesian model is extended to allow for...