In this paper we use data from the Consensus Economics forecast poll to explore the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters with respect to forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. We focus on four key macroeconomic variables for the G7 countries to analyze whether private sector...

A model with optimizing firms and consumers is used to explore the effects of unannounced and preannounced fiscal adjustment policies that are intended to prevent an impending balance of payments crisis. It is shown that preannouncement unambiguously raises the required fiscal adjustment effort...

This paper addresses the question of whether financial market participants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. To this end, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of inflation rate, interest rate and growth rate...