This paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures. The new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements in inflation, such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes. The adaptive measure filters out...

We study how a concern for robustness modifies a policymaker's incentive to experiment. A policymaker has a prior over two submodels of inflation-unemployment dynamics. One submodel implies an exploitable trade-off, the other does not. Bayes' law gives the policymaker an incentive to experiment....

A policy maker knows two models. One implies an exploitable inflation-unemployment trade-off, the other does not. The policy maker's prior probability over the two models is part of his state vector. Bayes' law converts the prior probability into a posterior probability and gives the policy...