STOCK, JAMES H.; WATSON, MARK W. - In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39 (2007) s1, pp. 3-33
We examine whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with...