Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is questionable. We design a market for economic derivatives that aggregates macro-economic information. The market generated forecasts compare well to the Bloomberg-...

Markets are a strong instrument for aggregating dispersed information, yet there are flaws. Markets are too complex for some users, they fail to capture massive amounts of their users’ relevant information, and they suffer from some individual-level biases. Based on recent research in polling...

The disposition effect describes investors’ common tendency of selling a winning investment too soon and holding on to losing investments too long. We analyze the disposition effect in a prediction market for economic indices. We show that the effect for individual traders as well as on an...