We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate...

This paper develops a modified version of the standard real estate discounted cash flow valuation model that allows the analyst to specify probability distributions, rather than point estimates, on general inflation and rental income for each year of the expected holding period. Explicit...

Since the founding of NCREIF almost three decades ago statistical methodologies useful for investment performance index construction have advanced dramatically, notably including developments such as the repeated-measures regression (RMR) and related noise-filtering techniques. In recent years,...