The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's (APRA's) supervisors use expert judgment to rate the risk of failure of general insurers (GIs). Using statistical data, we model the determinants of GI ratings and solvency cover and find: (1) sufficient predictive power in statistical data to...

We develop and test a statistical model to identify Australian general insurers experiencing financial distress over the 1999-2001 period. Using a logit model and two measures of financial distress we are able to predict, with reasonable confidence, the insurers more likely to be distressed....