We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT3). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent...

Several theories explain the common ratio effect as probability effect resulting from properties of individuals' preference ordering over probability distributions of consequences. In contrast, regret theory explains it as the result of changes in the juxtaposition of consequences in the...

Regret theory predicts that choices over prospects will be systematically influenced by the juxtaposition of outcomes in the payoff matrix. Experiments have found apparent juxtaposition effects of this kind. However, these experiments have not controlled for "event-splitting effects" (ESEs), by...

The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and...

<Para ID="Par1">Recent research invokes preference imprecision to explain violations of individual decision theory. While these inquiries are suggestive, the nature and significance of such imprecision remain poorly understood. We explore three questions using a new measurement tool in an experimental...</para>

This paper presents an experiment that is designed to be more effective than previous studies at reproducing in the laboratory the affective experiences of risk-taking, such as hope, fear, thrill, pain of loss, regret, disappointment or elation. The use of dynamic choice problems involving...

The random preference, Fechner (or "white noise"), and constant error (or "tremble") models of stochastic choice under risk are compared. Various combinations of these approaches are used with expected utility and rank-dependent theory. The resulting models are estimated in a random effects...