their forecasting performance. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in ETM volatility patterns, which challenge …

that, in this case, adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR …

forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …