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Sectoral infrastructure investment in an unbalanced growing economy: The case of India

Ghate, Chetan; Glomm, Gerhard; Liu, Jialu - 2012

We study the sectoral allocation of public infrastructure investments in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in India. In addition to the changing employment and output shares of these two sectors, the capital output ratio in agriculture in India has fallen, while it has risen in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807668

Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future

Aizenman, Joshua; Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur - 2010

The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the increase in stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the perspective that the sustainability of a given public debt/GDP depends on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287758

Fiscal fragility: What the past says about the future

Aizenman, Joshua; Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur - 2010

The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288164

The effect of interventions to reduce fertility on economic growth

Ashraf, Quamrul H.; Weil, David N.; Wilde, Joshua - 2011

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287727

Output volatility and openness to trade: A reassessment

Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2007

Many economists believe that, while openness to trade increases average GDP growth rates, it also raises output volatility by exposing countries to terms-oftrade shocks. This view does not take into account that, as suggested by a recent strand of the financial fragility literature, commercial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278237

Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions

Cavallo, Alberto F.; Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2008

This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of institutions in determining the outcome of crises on long-term growth. Once unobserved country-specific effects and other sources of endogeneity are accounted for, political institutions affect growth through their interaction with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278293

Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops

Hutchison, Michael M.; Noy, Ilan; Wang, Lidan - 2007

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a sudden stop" in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285311

Simulation-based valuation of project finance: does model complexity really matter?

Weber, Florian; Schmid, Thomas; Pietz, Matthäus; … - 2010

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305715

Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives

Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R. - 2003

forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263216

Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates

Kascha, Christian; Trenkler, Carsten - 2011

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316827