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Guénette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022

Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014541046

Macroeconomic Equilibriums, Crises and Fiscal Policy

Andersson, Fredrik N. G. - 2020

Macroeconomic crises are common as well as economically, socially and politically costly. Fiscal policy plays an important role in alleviating the costs of the crisis. However, recent experiences suggest that the public finances often are unprepared for a crisis. Deficits and debt levels prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208884

Reducing economic imbalances in the euro area: Some remarks on the current stability programs, 2011-14

Semieniuk, Gregor; van Treeck, Till; Truger, Achim - 2011

This paper evaluates whether the 2011 national stability programs (SPs) of the euro area countries are instrumental in achieving economic stability in the European Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, we analyze how the SPs address the double challenge of public deficits and external imbalances....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286525

Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops

Hutchison, Michael M.; Noy, Ilan; Wang, Lidan - 2007

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a sudden stop" in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285311

An investment initiative for fiscally constrained EU member states: The role of synergetic financial instruments

Zeilbeck, Severin - 2015

The economy of the European Union has not recovered from the impact of the economic and financial crisis. Growth rates remain low and investment activity is weak. This questions current economic policies of the Economic and Monetary Union, known as austerity. In opposition to fiscal contraction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381297

In Pursuit of a Stable Stabilization Policy in Sweden. From the Gold Standard to Inflation Targeting and Beyond

Jonung, Lars - 2019

In a historical perspective, the stabilization policy regime in Sweden is in a state of constant change, affected by economic crises, international impulses, domestic politics, and developments in macroeconomic theory. Economists have been deeply involved in this process. The current framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208861

ECB worries/European woes: The economic consequences of parochial policy

Barbera, Robert J.; Holtham, Gerald - 2012

Financial market crises with the threat of a subsequent debt-deflation depression have occurred with increasing regularity in the United States from 1980 through the present. Almost reflexively, when confronted with such circumstances, US institutions and the policymakers that run them have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318632

Simulation-based valuation of project finance: does model complexity really matter?

Weber, Florian; Schmid, Thomas; Pietz, Matthäus; … - 2010

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305715

Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives

Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R. - 2003

forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263216

Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates

Kascha, Christian; Trenkler, Carsten - 2011

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316827