Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

wage indexation to past in ation, a nding that is at odds with the assumption of constant indexation parameters in most New-Keynesian DSGE models. We build a DSGE model with endogenous wage indexation in which utility maximizing workers select a wage indexation rule in response to aggregate...

Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we .find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be considerably larger than the impact of a shift in...

We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity...

We estimate a New Keynesian wage Phillips curve for a panel of 24 OECD countries, and allow the degree of wage indexation to past inflation to vary according to the monetary policy regime. We .find that the extent of wage indexation is significantly lower in an inflation targeting regime, in...