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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473138

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in consecutive … among eurozone forecasts. If euro area governments are not in violation of the 3% cap at the time forecasts are made …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460377

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456327

Over-Optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …:•Governments' budget forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially among the Eurozone countries, especially when they have …-optimistic during booms.•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102194

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249558

Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2000

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. We use economic and geographic data for over 200...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470886

Trade and Growth : An Empirical Investigation

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

Countries' geographic characteristics have important effects on their trade, and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of their incomes. This paper therefore constructs measures of the geographic component of countries' trade and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473383

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427

A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1994

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory power to monetary models such as the Dornbusch 'overshooting' theory, in the form of reaction to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474046