We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

in the different models. Simple model-specific policy rules that include the lagged interest rate, inflation and current …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using … disaggregate sectoral data. - Aggregate forecasts ; disaggregate information ; forecast combination ; inflation …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …