Showing 1 - 10 of 62
We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973538
We found that on average over the period from 1989 to 2007, 21 percent of American households at a given point of time received a wealth transfer and these accounted for 23 percent of their net worth. Over the lifetime, about 30 percent of households could expect to receive a wealth transfer and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008907281
The paper assesses the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank and their effectiveness. We find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decisionmaking process in the committee. The paper shows that the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003014292
in the different models. Simple model-specific policy rules that include the lagged interest rate, inflation and current …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688516
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worst-performers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003396783
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001762883
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002555506
Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003001800
theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using … disaggregate sectoral data. - Aggregate forecasts ; disaggregate information ; forecast combination ; inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971045
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971060