dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's ambiguity aversion to match only the first moment of the risk …

dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …

associated with average returns. We show that the resulting portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated … with the characteristic, but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance …