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We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
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The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal...
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Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by … analysis extends from 1981-2008, the results for Germany mostly capture the situation before the euro was created. - Global …
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