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Researchers who estimate affine term structure models often impose overidentifying restrictions (restrictions on parameters beyond those necessary for identification) for a variety of reasons. While some of those restrictions seem to have minor effects on the extracted factors and some measures...
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In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...
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This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are studied separately. We start from the historical trend in...
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Using an aggregate credit spread index, we find that it has substantial predictive power for corporate bond returns … controls. The credit spread index and its components have more predictive power for bond returns than conventional default and … more predictive power for future bond returns. The source of the index's predictive power is from its ability to forecast …
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Using option prices, a new method for estimating the term structure of expected stock returns (equity curve) is proposed. We analyse how the equity curve relates to future stock returns and obtain three main results. First, a higher level of the equity curve is associated with higher future...
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