We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...

The computational revolution in simulation techniques has shown to become a key ingredient in the field of Bayesian econometrics and opened new possibilities to study complex economic and financial phenomena. Applications include risk measurement, forecasting, assessment of policy effectiveness...