This paper revisits the question whether volatilities of different markets and trading zones have a long-run equilibrium in the sense that they are fractionally cointegrated. We consider the U.S., Japanese and German stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to see whether there is fractional...

In response to questions about the relative importance of different types of capital flow for international competitiveness, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model of the real exchange rate and international capital flows. We reveal that innovations to speculative sentiment cause...

We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts...

In the U.S., the geometric return on stocks has been higher than the geometric return on bonds over long periods. We study whether balanced portfolios have a larger geometric return (and expected log return) than stock portfolios when the risk premium is low. We use a theoretical model and...

This paper proposes a procedure to investigate the nature and persistence of the forces governing the yield curve and to use the extracted information for forecasting purposes. The latent factors of a model of the Nelson-Siegel type are directly linked to the maturity of the yields through the...

This paper studies the contemporaneous relationship between S&P 500 index returns and log-increments of the market volatility index (VIX) via a nonparametric copula method. Specifically, we propose a conditional dependence index to investigate how the dependence between the two series varies...

This paper reviews and appraises the body of empirical research on the association between .nancial markets and economic growth that has accumulated over the past quarter-century. The bulk of the historical evidence suggests that financial development a¤ects economic growth in a positive,...

This paper examines the steady state properties of the Threshold Vector Autoregressive model. Assuming that the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary distribution are derived. A...

We study how monetary policy affects local market competition in a union of countries experiencing different economic conditions: the euro area. We find that when monetary conditions tighten (loosen), from the point of view of an individual economy, market concentration increases (declines)....

This paper proposes a semiparametric realized stochastic volatility model by integrating the parametric stochastic volatility model utilizing realized volatility information and the Bayesian nonparametric framework. The flexible framework offered by Bayesian nonparametric mixtures not only...