This paper develops a dynamic portfolio selection model incorporating economic uncertainty for business cycles. It is assumed that the financial market at each point in time is defined by a hidden Markov model, which is characterized by the overall equity market returns and volatility. The risk...

Intraday high-frequency data of stock returns exhibit not only typical characteristics (e.g., volatility clustering and the leverage effect) but also a cyclical pattern of return volatility that is known as intraday seasonality. In this paper, we extend the stochastic volatility (SV) model for...

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation (MRS-MNTS-GARCH) to accommodate fat tails, volatility...

Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non-linear behavior with a Markov-switching model that allows us to identify a regime of high uncertainty, and a regime of low uncertainty and low concern about inflation. Using a...