We consider a system where the asset values of firms are correlated with the default thresholds. We first evaluate the probability of default of a single firm under the correlated assets assumptions. This extends Merton’s probability of default of a single firm under the independent asset...

The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo...

Prior research uses the basic one-period European call-option pricing model to compute default measures for individual firms and concludes that both the size and book-to-market effects are related to default risk. For example, small firms earn higher return than big firms only if they have...

We investigate the default probability, recovery rates and loss distribution of a portfolio of securitised loans granted to Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). To this end, we use loan level data information provided by the European DataWarehouse platform and employ a logistic...

This study aims to compare the prediction accuracy of traditional distress prediction models for the firms which are at an early and advanced stage of distress in an emerging market, Pakistan, during 2001-2015. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology involves constructing model scores for...

Research analysis of small enterprises are still rare, due to lack of individual level data. Small enterprise failures are connected not only with their financial situation abut also with non-financial factors. In recent research we tend to apply more and more complex models. However, it is not...

Bharath and Shumway (2008) provide evidence that shows that it is the functional form of Merton’s (1974) distance to default (DD) model that makes it useful and important for predicting defaults. In this paper, we investigate whether the default predictability of the Merton DD model would be...

We examine the relation between corporate governance and bankruptcy risk as an underlying force affecting a bond’s yield. The level of corporate governance is captured by the G-index, along with the explicit groups of governance provisions. We estimate bankruptcy risk by Z-score, by...

Globalization has precipitated movement of output and employment between regions. We examine factors related to corporate financial distress across three continents. Using a multidimensional definition of financial distress we test three hypotheses to explain financial distress using historical...

Measures of corporate credit risk incorporate compensation for unpredictable future changes in the credit environment and compensation for expected default losses. Since the launch of purchases of government securities and corporate securities by the European Central Bank, it has been discussed...