This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight...

This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies, with a focus on down-side risk metrics, as a portfolio diversification strategy in a European market context. We apply these measures to a set of daily arithmetically-compounded returns, in...

In this paper, we demonstrate the superiority of vine copulas over conventional copulas when modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio. We show statistical and economic implications of replacing conventional copulas by vine copulas for a subportfolio of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the...

VaR (Value at Risk) and CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) are implied by option prices. Their relationships to option prices are derived initially under the pricing measure. It does not require assumptions about the distribution of portfolio returns. The effects of changes of measure are modest...

This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among U.S. banks, financial services and insurance sectors. Life and non-life insurers have been considered separately to account for their different characteristics. The tail risk interdependence measurement framework...

The statistical distribution of financial returns plays a key role in evaluating Value-at-Risk using parametric methods. Traditionally, when evaluating parametric Value-at-Risk, the statistical distribution of the financial returns is assumed to be normally distributed. However, though simple to...

In this paper we investigate portfolio optimization under Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected Loss constraints in a continuous time framework, where stocks follow a geometric Brownian motion. Analytic expressions for Value at Risk, Average Value at Risk and Limited Expected...

In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...

The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some...

Copula modelling is a popular tool in analysing the dependencies between variables. Copula modelling allows the investigation of tail dependencies, which is of particular interest in risk and survival applications. Copula modelling is also of specific interest to economic and financial modelling...