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forecasting the volatility of international stock markets. Furthermore, the results suggest that the most vulnerable stock markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813501
This paper addresses the problem of forecasting daily stock trends. The key consideration is to predict whether a given … stock will close on uptrend tomorrow with reference to today's closing price. We propose a forecasting model that comprises … predict the trends of 15 stocks. Experiments showed that our forecasting model had 80% accuracy, significantly outperforming …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013273115
The paper investigates whether Bitcoin is a good predictor of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. To answer this question we compare alternative models using a point and density forecast relying on Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Dynamic Model Selection (DMS). According to our results, Bitcoin...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022045
forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553303
This manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm's bankruptcy risk is … dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012171279
This paper considers a flexible class of time series models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the corresponding statistical properties of this model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854876
Different forecasting behaviors affect investors’ trading decisions and lead to qualitatively different asset price … forecasting future price changes, and the nature of their confidence when price changes are forecast, determine whether price … forecasting models of all participants that best fit the observed forecasting data were of the type that cause price bubbles and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854982
This paper proposes a new combined semiparametric estimator of the conditional variance that takes the product of a parametric estimator and a nonparametric estimator based on machine learning. A popular kernel-based machine learning algorithm, known as the kernel-regularized least squares...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814196
systematic exploration and forecasting of sovereign default risks. Multivariate statistical and stochastic process …-based sovereign default risk forecasting has a 50-year developmental history. This article describes a continuous, non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792441
can be used in risk measurement and forecasting. Value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of financial risk, which … series analysis conducted and led to the forecasting of the returns. It was noted that these methods could not be used in … relation of assets with each other. Furthermore, we also examined the environment as a whole, then applied forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795821