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financial ratios. Stock market volatility is non-Gaussian distributed. It can be approximated by an inverse Gaussian (IG … indicators to help us forecast stock market volatility. Via simulation, we validated the use of four models, i.e., a univariate … us forecast stock market volatility. These are the credit spread between the U.S. Aaa corporate bond yield and the 10 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012798738
(MRS-MNTS-GARCH) to accommodate fat tails, volatility clustering and regime switch. The volatility of each asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013273511
In this paper, we analysed the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigated the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794370
Precise modeling and forecasting of the volatility of energy futures is vital to structuring trading strategies in spot … measurement of risk. This paper is an attempt to model volatility of energy futures under different distributions. In empirical … analysis, we estimate the volatility of Natural Gas Futures, Brent Oil Futures and Heating Oil Futures through GARCH and APARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011857131
options prices under Heston's stochastic volatility (SV) model. We demonstrate that under a particular reparametrization, this … volatility 'smile', which indicates a likely distortion in the Black-Scholes modeling of such option data. Reflective of entirely … different market expectations, this distortion in the volatility 'smile' appears not to exist in the TLT option data. We provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013273577
In this paper, the Heston-Nandi futures option pricing model is applied to Bitcoin futures options. The model prices are compared to market prices to give an indication of the pricing performance. In addition, a multivariate Bitcoin futures option pricing methodology based on a multivatiate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012588206
one-month variance swap rate, i.e., the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) accurately. Our research suggests that one should use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174118
timelines were used to carry out stressed value at risks, and it was seen that during periods of crisis, the volatility of asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795821
In this paper, we extend the parametric approach of VaR estimation that is based upon the application of two transforms, one for handling skewness and other for kurtosis. These transformations restore normality to data when applied in succession. The transforms are well defined and offer an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012483525
In this paper, we propose a general family of Birnbaum–Saunders autoregressive conditional duration (BS-ACD) models based on generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distributions, denoted by GBS-ACD. We further generalize these GBS-ACD models by using a Box-Cox transformation with a shape parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174138