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one-month variance swap rate, i.e., the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) accurately. Our research suggests that one should use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174118
This paper proposes a novel approach, based on convolutional neural network (CNN) models, that forecasts the short-term crude oil futures prices with good performance. In our study, we confirm that artificial intelligence (AI)-based deep-learning approaches can provide more accurate forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011961566
The present study used transfer entropy and effective transfer entropy to examine the asymmetric information flow between exchange rates, oil, and gold. The dataset is composed of daily data covering the period of 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021. Further, the dataset is bifurcated for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014301581
methods indicate that volatility connectedness is higher than the return connectedness among these assets. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388777
mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555888
One of the notable features of bitcoin is its extreme volatility. The modeling and forecasting of bitcoin volatility … volatility were founded on econometric models. Research on bitcoin volatility forecasting using machine learning algorithms is … bitcoin's return volatility and Value at Risk. The objective of this study is to compare their out-of-sample performance in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626254
Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626875
We build a discrete-time non-linear model for volatility forecasting purposes. This model belongs to the class of … volatility regimes and using more accurate volatility measures allow outperforming other benchmark models, such as linear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011545111
degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553303
The rapid growth of electric vehicles, solar roofs, and wind power suggests that the potential growth in green equity investments is an emerging trend. Accordingly, this study measured the predictors of excess equity returns in a portfolio of global green energy producers, from 2010 to 2019....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872607